Maize yield and LAI sensitivity to temperature and rainfall changes under RCP4.5 & RCP6.0 in Punjab, India

Authors

  • Dr. Shivani Kothiyal Department of Agricultural Meteorology, G. B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar, US Nagar-263145, Uttarakhand, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8748-2035
  • Dr. Prabhjyot-Kaur Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004, Punjab, India
  • Dr. Sandeep Singh Sandhu Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004, Punjab, India
  • Dr. Jatinder Kaur Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004, Punjab, India

Abstract

             The study has been performed to understand the climate change impact on the major cereal crop i.e. maize in four agroclimatic zones (ACZ) of Punjab viz. ACZII (Ballowal Saunkhri), ACZIII (Amritsar, Ludhiana and Patiala), ACZIV (Bathinda) and ACZV (Abohar and Faridkot). The maize yield and leaf area index (LAI) trend was analysed under the current and optimized sowing dates with constant farming practices for stabilization scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 6.0) during near (2021-2055) and far future (2066-2095). An ensemble mean obtained for temperature and rainfall data from four selected global circulation models (GCMs) i.e. CSIRO-Mk-3.6.0, FIO-ESM, GISS-E2R and IPSL-CM5A-MR projected yield decline under the scenarios by 12-40%, 9-43%, 7-57% and 1-95% at respective ACZs. The quantified impact of optimized sowing dates with constant farming practices on maize revealed that higher yields were obtained for mid May to end June at ACZII, early May to end June at ACZIII and early May at ACZV (Faridkot) while LAI observed an increasing trend for both the scenarios and time period. The results indicated that the cv. PMH1 performed well during both the time period while PMH2 performed well during near future only and the maximum yield decline was observed during the far future when emissions would be high. The ACZIV and ACZV (Abohar) were found to be completely unsuitable for maize cultivation in the state. Thus, such climate change studies are important for India where variable weather patterns have been projected and these can be applied for future climate studies under new scenarios.

Additional Files

Published

2026-03-11

Issue

Vol. 68 No. 1

Section

Articles

License

Copyright The corresponding author represents all the manuscript’s authors. Upon manuscript acceptance, copyright becomes held by Maydica, which adopts an open access publishing policy. Published articles can be retrieved from the Maydica web site free of charge for personal use, deposition into any departmental or institutional repository, or distribution for any commercial or non-commercial endeavor. Articles obtained from the web site may not be altered in any way without the permission of the Maydica editors. The corresponding author must obtain permission to reproduce figures, tables, or text from other copyrighted material.